Hazard, Impact and Risk
Comprehensive volcanic hazard and risk analyses must ideally encompass all phases of a volcano life from repose to unrest and eruption. Although methodologies for hazard and risk analyses and management are constantly improved for each specific phase, recent experiences with volcanic crises reveal challenges in i) integrating these different time scales into a comprehensive risk mitigation framework and ii) improving communications and understanding between all actors of volcanic disaster risk assessment and management. This theme explores research and progresses supporting the development of robust, evidence-based frameworks for hazard, impact and risk analyses across all spatial and temporal scales and all concerned academic, operational, governmental and private institutions. The theme is articulated around four general questions:
1. How can we better integrate long-term, short-term and operational hazard assessments? for instance, through the development of frameworks integrating repose (e.g., stratigraphic analyses, frequency-magnitude relationships and the use of analogue data), unrest (e.g., informing hazard models with monitoring data) and crisis (e.g., syn-eruptive data assimilation) phases;
2. How can we better integrate the needs and perspectives of all involved institutions? for instance, by developing hybrid probabilistic/deterministic hazard assessment methodologies, through participatory risk analyses or by accounting for cultural and indigenous knowledge;
3. How do we address data gaps? either for hazard (e.g., knowledge of the eruptive history, monitoring capabilities), exposure (e.g., availability and completeness of geospatial datasets) or vulnerability (e.g., variable knowledge amongst hazards and regions);
4. How do we account for complex impacts? for instance, resulting from compound or persistent secondary hazards, impacting the function and services of complex systems or accounting for dynamic exposure changes.
Theme leaders:
Sara Barsotti
Irene Manzella
Sébastien Biasse